Tracking the Changing World Order

The dots behind the headlines — connected.

22 active signalsH10 max heatLATEST BRIEF →
HEAT54321
LAYERSCenterInstrumentsEffectsSignals

🔇 Watching

7 structural topics quiet but monitored

China-Taiwan Strait

L3Signals
H9
Why it matters

Trump May 14 Beijing trip confirmation. PLA exercises around US blockade distraction. Taiwan DPP response to Xi-KMT track. Semiconductor stockpiling. Ma Xingrui probe outcome.

Last active: -47 days ago

Chinese Yuan / CNY

L3Signals
H10
Why it matters

Saudi or Kuwait entertaining yuan leg, or any public PBoC swap-line with a Gulf central bank.

Last active: -44 days ago

US Fiscal / Debt / Deficit

L2Effects
H4
Why it matters

Congressional $200B vote. Treasury auction demand. Any failed auction. CBO updated deficit projections. Defense company guidance.

Last active: -25 days ago

Military / Force Projection

L1Instruments
H8
Why it matters

First kinetic engagement with IRGC fast boats. Ceasefire expiry Apr 21 response. Ground op decision if talks fail. War Powers 60-day clock end of April.

Last active: -25 days ago

Institutional Control

L1Instruments
H5
Why it matters

ICJ blockade ruling. UN General Assembly emergency session. ICC Lebanon/Iran referrals. BRICS+ alternative institutions. IEA stock release market impact.

Last active: -25 days ago

Trade & Sanctions

L2Effects
H4
Why it matters

Chinese/Russian vessel confrontation. New sanctions packages. Shadow fleet adaptations. BRICS+ payment alternatives. SWIFT alternative announcements.

Last active: -25 days ago

Western Election Shifts

L3Signals
H2
Why it matters

Next European elections. Cordon sanitaire breaking anywhere. Vote share trajectories. Any seated populist actually governing vs. domesticated.

Last active: -25 days ago

📉 Fading

1 signal topic losing signal

Red Sea / Bab al-Mandeb Threat

H5
-23 days since last mention
Last covered by
Robert PapeScott Horton