Tracking the Changing World Order
The dots behind the headlines — connected.
🔇 Watching
7 structural topics quiet but monitoredChina-Taiwan Strait
Trump May 14 Beijing trip confirmation. PLA exercises around US blockade distraction. Taiwan DPP response to Xi-KMT track. Semiconductor stockpiling. Ma Xingrui probe outcome.
Chinese Yuan / CNY
Saudi or Kuwait entertaining yuan leg, or any public PBoC swap-line with a Gulf central bank.
US Fiscal / Debt / Deficit
Congressional $200B vote. Treasury auction demand. Any failed auction. CBO updated deficit projections. Defense company guidance.
Military / Force Projection
First kinetic engagement with IRGC fast boats. Ceasefire expiry Apr 21 response. Ground op decision if talks fail. War Powers 60-day clock end of April.
Institutional Control
ICJ blockade ruling. UN General Assembly emergency session. ICC Lebanon/Iran referrals. BRICS+ alternative institutions. IEA stock release market impact.
Trade & Sanctions
Chinese/Russian vessel confrontation. New sanctions packages. Shadow fleet adaptations. BRICS+ payment alternatives. SWIFT alternative announcements.
Western Election Shifts
Next European elections. Cordon sanitaire breaking anywhere. Vote share trajectories. Any seated populist actually governing vs. domesticated.