Source Portfolio
Tier-rated. Tagged by hierarchy layer. Full transparency on where interpretation comes from.
Primary framework source — defines how we think about a domain
High-signal, regular follow — consistently produces actionable insights
Good secondary source — reliable reporting, useful data
Occasional value — check when relevant
Ray Dalio
Empires rise and fall in predictable cycles. They accumulate debt, print money, face internal conflict, and get challenged by rising powers. The US is in the decline phase of this cycle — and the Iran war is accelerating it.
Big Cycle / Changing World Order
Bridgewater Associates founder. Tracks rise/decline of empires through debt cycles, internal conflict, and external power shifts. Currently very vocal about Iran war as potential US empire inflection point. Suez 1956 parallel = his signature call.
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CTO Larsson
A technical analysis system that uses color-coded signals to identify where assets are in their market cycle. Blue = strong trend, yellow = caution, orange = danger, white = reset. Cuts through the noise.
Larsson Line technical analysis
Weekly TA reports (Fridays). Color-coded signal system. Christoph has lifetime course access. Price action + structure.
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Professor Jiang Xueqin (江学勤)
History doesn't repeat but it rhymes. By studying how past empires (Athens, Rome, Britain) made fatal strategic mistakes, you can predict where today's empires will stumble. He called the Iran war in 2024.
Predictive History — structural historical analysis + game theory + Asimov-inspired psychohistory
Chinese-Canadian educator (Yale grad), teaches at Moonshot Academy in Beijing. Called Trump's return AND the Iran war in a May 2024 lecture — both confirmed. Uses civilizational decline patterns (Athens/Sicilian Expedition, Rome, Britain). Substack paywalled but YouTube has full lectures.
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Lyn Alden
When governments can't stop spending but can't raise taxes either, they print money. This 'fiscal dominance' means the Fed can't really fight inflation — they're trapped. Every war and crisis makes the trap deeper.
Fiscal dominance / sovereign debt cycles / 'three pillar portfolio'
One of the most respected independent macro analysts. Her 'fiscal dominance' thesis explains why sovereign debt bubbles and wars feed on each other. March 2026 newsletter covers Iran war impact on her 'gradual print' scenario + stagflation portfolio positioning. Free newsletter archives on site. Christoph flagged as 'mainly for financial stuff'.
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Mike Benz
There's a hidden network of government agencies, NGOs, and tech platforms that coordinates what you're allowed to see and say online. It was built for regime change abroad, then turned inward. He maps exactly who controls the narrative and how.
Censorship Industrial Complex — maps the state-NGO-tech nexus that controls online narrative. Shows how 'internet freedom' tools built by CIA/State Dept for regime change abroad got turned inward to manage domestic populations.
Former State Dept cyber official. Runs Foundation for Freedom Online. Broke open the 'Censorship Industrial Complex' — the network of government agencies, NGOs, and tech platforms coordinating narrative control. His framework explains HOW hegemony maintains information dominance: not just military and monetary control, but control of what populations are allowed to think and say. Critical missing piece in our stack — covers the information/narrative control layer of US hegemony that no other source addresses. Recent coverage: Meta/TikTok dropping E2E encryption, digital ID push, EU fining X via US-funded NGOs. S-tier because he's the primary framework source for understanding information control as a tool of empire, same way Lyn Alden is for fiscal dominance.
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Scott Horton
The walking encyclopedia of US foreign policy disasters. He's interviewed thousands of ex-intelligence officers, diplomats, and on-the-ground journalists. Everyone in the anti-war space orbits him. If you want to understand why any US war is happening, start here.
Deep anti-war analysis rooted in exhaustive knowledge of US foreign policy history. Interviews primary sources — ex-intelligence, military, diplomats, journalists on the ground.
The hub of the anti-war analysis network. Director of Libertarian Institute, editorial director of Antiwar.com, regular on Dave Smith's POTP, co-host of Provoked, did Lex Fridman #478. Daily interview show with deep-cut guests (Larry Johnson, Joe Kent, Matt Hoh, Shaiel Ben-Ephraim). Author of several books on US wars. S-tier because he IS the primary framework source for foreign policy in this stack — everyone else in the anti-war space orbits him.
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Robert Pape
Powerful states fall into a predictable trap: precision bombing appears successful initially but fails strategically, the target regime lashes back asymmetrically, and domestic pressure pushes toward ground war. Each stage closes the trap further. Applied to the Iran war, Pape predicted the Hormuz closure and ground war pipeline before the first bombs fell.
Escalation Trap
Professor of Political Science at the University of Chicago. Director of the Chicago Project on Security and Threats. Author of 'Bombing to Win' (1996) and 'Dying to Win' (2005). The academic authority on why air campaigns fail to achieve political objectives. His Escalation Trap framework has been remarkably predictive on the Iran war — laid out the stages before hostilities began. 29,000+ Substack subscribers. Published in Foreign Affairs, featured on PBS Amanpour, cited in The Guardian.
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The Libertarian Institute
The anti-war journalism hub. They bring on ex-intelligence, military, and diplomatic sources to break down what's actually happening vs. what the government says is happening. Think of them as the BS detector for foreign policy.
Anti-interventionist foreign policy analysis. Strong on Iran war coverage — daily shows with former intelligence/military guests (Larry Johnson, Matt Hoh, Darryl Cooper). Good counterweight to mainstream war narratives. Christoph explicitly flagged as a source for the news project. A-tier because it's excellent reporting/analysis but more journalistic than framework-building.
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Simon Dixon
The global financial system is rigged — central banks print, governments spend, and your savings get debased. Bitcoin is the escape hatch. He connects the dots from geopolitics to monetary collapse to why BTC is the endgame.
Bitcoin as escape hatch from fiscal dominance / financial-industrial complex / multipolar monetary transition
Bitcoin OG, early investor in Coinbase, Kraken, BitFinex, Circle, Robinhood. CEO of BnkToTheFuture. Author of 'Bank to the Future'. His lens: connects geopolitics → monetary system → Bitcoin as the logical endpoint. Weekly 'Hard Talk' livestreams — latest covers Iran War Week 3 and 'Financial Industrial Complex Settlement Phase'. Argues US is pursuing fiscal dominance while multipolar currency order accelerates, and Bitcoin's PoW is the ultimate resistance to CBDCs/surveillance. Strong crypto background, geopolitical takes are newer but interesting — bridges the gap between pure-crypto and macro-geopolitical analysis. Christoph flagged geopolitical takes as 'interesting but unproven' — starting at A-tier, can move to S if his geo analysis holds up.
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Dave Smith
A comedian who's dead serious about foreign policy. His superpower is consistency — he was anti-war under Obama, Trump, Biden, and Trump again. When everyone else picks sides, he picks principles. The clearest bullshit detector for government war messaging.
Non-interventionist libertarian analysis — consistent anti-war framework applied regardless of party in power
Brooklyn-raised comedian/podcaster, Mises Caucus, close with Rogan. Hosts Part of the Problem with Robbie Bernstein. What sets him apart: ideological consistency — same anti-war stance under Obama, Trump 1.0, and Trump 2.0. Has been laser-focused on Iran war (eps 1366-1372). Brings on strong guests like Scott Horton for deep foreign policy dives. Also co-hosts Legion of Skanks (comedy). Christoph flagged as 'sane, sensible, cohesive baseline' — high signal-to-noise for cutting through war propaganda and government messaging.
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Antiwar.com
The OG anti-war news wire — running since 1995. While mainstream media runs Pentagon talking points, these guys run what's actually happening on the ground. Breaking news + opinion from people who've been calling out every war for three decades.
The OG anti-war news site — founded 1995. Combined feed gives breaking news wire + opinion/analysis columns. Kyle Anzalone bridges this and the Libertarian Institute. Scott Horton is editorial director here AND a frequent Dave Smith guest. Strong overlap with the libertarian anti-war network in our source stack. Ron Paul, John Mearsheimer columns appear here regularly.
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Thomas Fazi
The EU isn't a democracy — it's a technocratic machine that uses monetary policy to override what voters actually want. He's economically left but anti-establishment on everything: war, censorship, EU governance. The rare European voice that doesn't toe the Brussels line.
European sovereignty critique — anti-EU-centralization, pro-national sovereignty, connects monetary policy to political control. Left-wing economically but anti-establishment on war/EU governance.
Italian-British author and journalist. 'Mainstream-defying reflections on (geo)politics, economics, war, energy and life.' Wrote 'The Battle for Europe' and 'Reclaiming the State.' Rare voice: left-wing economics but aligned with anti-war/anti-establishment positions on EU governance, NATO, and information control. Fills our European domestic politics gap. A-tier — strong original analysis on EU/Europe but less track record on broader geopolitical prediction.
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Yanis Varoufakis
Capitalism is dead — replaced by 'techno-feudalism' where Big Tech platforms and central banks are the new lords. He knows because he fought them as Greece's finance minister and watched the EU crush a democratic mandate in real time. Theory meets lived experience.
Techno-feudalism / post-capitalist critique — argues capitalism has been replaced by a new feudalism driven by Big Tech platforms and central bank money. EU fiscal architecture as democratic deficit.
Former Greek Finance Minister, famously fought the Troika during Greek debt crisis (2015). Economist, author of 'Technofeudalism' and 'Adults in the Room.' Founded DiEM25/MERA25 (pan-European political movement). He LIVED the Layer 1 institutional pressure — the EU/ECB/IMF literally crushed his country's democratic mandate. First-hand experience of how hegemonic instruments override popular will. A-tier — brilliant framework thinker, but sometimes more theoretical than actionable.
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Michael Shellenberger
He broke the Twitter Files — the receipts showing government agencies telling social media what to censor. While Benz maps the system, Shellenberger kicks in the doors and publishes what he finds. Investigative journalism with actual teeth.
Investigative journalism on censorship-industrial complex + energy realism. Bridges Mike Benz's institutional analysis with on-the-ground journalism.
Journalist, author, ran for CA governor. Runs 'Public' on Substack — 'Reporting on free speech, civilization, and humanity.' Was one of the journalists who broke the Twitter Files (with Matt Taibbi and Bari Weiss), exposing government-Big Tech censorship coordination. Also strong on energy policy realism (nuclear advocate, debunks climate alarmism). Complements Mike Benz — Benz maps the system, Shellenberger breaks the individual stories. A-tier — excellent investigative work, less framework-building than Benz.
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Glenn Greenwald
The guy who broke the Snowden files. Won a Pulitzer for exposing mass surveillance, then left his own publication when they tried to censor him. Same principles under every president — if the government is lying, he'll say it, no matter which team is in charge.
Civil libertarian journalism — consistent anti-surveillance, anti-censorship, anti-war regardless of which party is in power. Media criticism as a discipline.
Pulitzer Prize winner for the Snowden NSA revelations. Co-founded The Intercept, left over censorship of his own Biden reporting. Now independent on Substack + Rumble. Like Dave Smith, what distinguishes him is ideological consistency — same civil liberties stance under Obama, Trump, Biden, Trump 2.0. Strong on exposing the security state/surveillance apparatus and media as propaganda arm. Complements the Benz/Shellenberger information control coverage from a constitutional/legal angle. A-tier — proven track record, sometimes more reactive than framework-building.
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Breaking Points
A progressive and a conservative who agree on the stuff that actually matters — anti-war, anti-corporate media, anti-elite capture. When left and right populism converge, that's where the real signal is. They're the barometer for what normal people think when the propaganda wears off.
Left-right populist convergence — two hosts from opposite ends of the spectrum agreeing on anti-establishment fundamentals: anti-war, anti-corporate-media, anti-elite-capture.
Krystal Ball (progressive) and Saagar Enjeti (conservative) broke from The Hill's Rising to go independent. Massive YouTube reach (1.5M+ subs). Their value: shows where left and right populism converge — which is exactly where the real anti-establishment energy lives. Daily show covering politics, foreign policy, media. Good barometer for 'what normal anti-establishment people are thinking' vs. our more specialized analysts. A-tier — broad coverage, high signal-to-noise, but more journalistic commentary than original framework.
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Matt Taibbi
One of the original Twitter Files journalists who proved the government was telling social media platforms what to censor. Before that, he was the guy who explained the 2008 financial crisis in plain English (Goldman Sachs as 'a great vampire squid'). His beat: following the money and the power, then explaining it so everyone can understand. Now covers the Iran war, media capture, and institutional rot from his independent Substack.
Investigative journalism exposing institutional corruption — from Wall Street fraud to the censorship-industrial complex. Media criticism as a beat.
Former Rolling Stone journalist, broke out with iconic Wall Street coverage ('The Great American Bubble Machine'). Co-broke the Twitter Files with Shellenberger and Bari Weiss, exposing FBI/DHS coordination with Big Tech on content moderation. Left legacy media, now runs Racket News on Substack. Known for accessible, irreverent long-form that makes complex institutional corruption understandable. Complements Benz (maps the system) and Shellenberger (breaks individual stories) — Taibbi does the narrative journalism that makes people actually care. A-tier — proven track record, Pulitzer-caliber work, but more journalist than framework-builder.
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Saifedean Ammous
Every major civilization decline correlates with currency debasement. Fiat money enables endless war, debt expansion, and misallocated capital. Bitcoin is the first technology that could reverse this — a return to sound money principles that constrained governments for millennia.
Austrian Economics / Bitcoin Standard — fiat money is the root dysfunction of modern economies. Sound money (Bitcoin) fixes incentive structures across society. Monetary regime transitions follow predictable historical patterns.
Author of The Bitcoin Standard — the book that convinced Strategy (MicroStrategy) to buy Bitcoin. Austrian economics PhD from Columbia. Operates at the monetary THEORY layer — why fiat systems fail structurally, historical monetary transitions, hard money case. BTC maximalist. Added to fill monetary theory gap between Larsson (technicals), Lyn Alden (macro), and Dixon (financial system architecture).
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Balaji Srinivasan
The 20th century was organized around nation-states. The 21st will be organized around network states — communities that start online and eventually acquire physical territory. Technology doesn't just disrupt industries, it disrupts the nation-state itself. Whoever controls AI and crypto infrastructure controls the next era of power.
Network State / Technology as Geopolitical Power — nation-states are being unbundled by technology. Digital communities will reorganize into network states with their own governance, currencies, and territory. Crypto, AI, and decentralized systems are the new instruments of sovereignty.
Former CTO Coinbase, former a16z GP. Author of The Network State. Thinks about geopolitics through technology-as-power lens — AI infrastructure as instrument of sovereignty, crypto as state-building tech, network states replacing nation-states. Provides non-Western tech perspective. Added to fill tech-geopolitics gap.
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Drop Site News
Ground-truth investigative journalism with direct government and military sources. Drop Site breaks stories through leaked documents, anonymous officials, and on-the-ground reporting — not commentary or punditry. Their pre-war intelligence leak (Jan 2026) confirmed regime change as the US objective before the first bomb fell.
Investigative War Reporting
Nonprofit investigative outlet co-founded by Jeremy Scahill (Blackwater, Dirty Wars) and Ryan Grim (former Intercept/HuffPost DC bureau chief) in July 2024. Also features Sharif Abdel Kouddous and Murtaza Hussain. Hundreds of thousands of Substack subscribers. Scahill has direct contact with Iranian officials — reported on Witkoff texting Iran to resume talks. Broke the Jan 2026 pre-war intelligence leak. Strongest investigative war reporting source in our portfolio.
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UnHerd
Post-liberal analysis challenging mainstream consensus from multiple political angles.