Election Tracker

CDU(CDU 31.0%, SPD 25.9%, AfD 19.5%)

CDU won with 31.0%, ending 35 years of SPD leadership in this state. But the real signal: AfD more than DOUBLED to 19.5% (from 8.3% in 2021) — best AfD result ever in a Western German state. SPD collapsed to 25.9%. Greens and FDP devastated. The anti-establishment surge is now penetrating Western Germany, not just the East.

AfD (systematic growth) — Alternative für Deutschland(20.8% (2025 federal))

AfD now second-largest party nationally. Cordon sanitaire — all other parties refuse coalition at federal level. Growing in every election cycle: 4.7% (2013) → 12.6% (2017) → 10.3% (2021) → 20.8% (2025). State-level wins in Thuringia (32.8%) and Saxony. Firewall holding but under increasing strain.

Călin Georgescu — Independent (nationalist)(22.9% (R1))

Won Round 1 of presidential election. Constitutional Court annulled the entire election citing 'foreign interference' via TikTok. No Round 2 held.

FPÖ (Herbert Kickl)(28.8%)

FPÖ won the election with highest vote share. President Van der Bellen refused to give Kickl the mandate to form government, instead tasking second-place ÖVP. Coalition talks eventually collapsed, FPÖ finally got mandate in January 2025.

RN (Le Pen / Bardella) — Rassemblement National(33.2% (R1 parliamentary))

RN won Round 1 of parliamentary elections. Macron's 'republican front' strategy — tactical withdrawals in Round 2 — prevented RN majority. Le Pen's presidential trend: 33.9% (2017) → 41.5% (2022) → climbing. The firewall is shrinking.

PVV (Geert Wilders)(23.5% (37 seats))

PVV won biggest party status with 37 seats. Months of coalition resistance followed. Other parties refused to join coalition. Eventually formed government after 7 months of negotiations — but Wilders had to give up PM role.

Giorgia Meloni — Fratelli d'Italia(26% (coalition 44%))

Clear coalition victory. Meloni became PM within weeks. Actually governing — the exception that proves the rule. Notable: most 'domesticated' of the right-wing winners, quickly aligned with EU/NATO consensus.

Marine Le Pen (R2 challenger) — Rassemblement National(41.5% (R2))

Le Pen reached presidential R2 for the second time. Lost to Macron but with 41.5% — up from 33.9% in 2017. The trajectory is clear.