Election Tracker

TISZA (Péter Magyar) — Tisza Party(TISZA 53.33% (138 seats), Fidesz-KDNP 38.13% (55 seats), Mi Hazánk 5.86% (6 seats))

Historic landslide ended Orbán's 16-year rule. TISZA won 138 of 199 seats — a two-thirds supermajority with the power to amend the constitution. Fidesz collapsed from 135 seats to 55, losing over half its parliamentary presence. Turnout surged to 79.5% (+9.9pp vs 2022). Orbán conceded on election night. The Ghost Signal: this is the counter-pattern to Romania/Austria/France. When the challenger is center-right and pro-EU rather than populist-right, the system doesn't resist — it facilitates. Orbán's 'illiberal democracy' structural advantages (media control, gerrymandered districts, two-thirds supermajority rules) weren't enough when popular will was this overwhelming. Magyar promised to bring Hungary back into the EU mainstream. Mi Hazánk (far-right) held steady at 6 seats (5.86%). The European Parliament had classified Hungary as a 'hybrid regime of electoral autocracy' since 2022 — that designation will likely be reviewed.

Social Democrats (Mette Frederiksen)(S 21.9%, SF 11.6%, V 10.1%, LA 9.4%, DF 9.1%)

Social Democrats won most votes but at 21.9% — their worst result since 1903. Red bloc won 84 seats vs blue bloc 77, with kingmaker Moderates on 14. Record 12 parties entered parliament. Danish People's Party surged back to 9.1% (16 seats). Election dominated by Trump's Greenland threats, driving a sovereignty/defense focus. Complex coalition talks ahead — no majority for either bloc.

CDU(CDU 31.0%, SPD 25.9%, AfD 19.5%)

CDU won with 31.0%, ending 35 years of SPD leadership in this state. But the real signal: AfD more than DOUBLED to 19.5% (from 8.3% in 2021) — best AfD result ever in a Western German state. SPD collapsed to 25.9%. Greens and FDP devastated. The anti-establishment surge is now penetrating Western Germany, not just the East.

ANO (Andrej Babiš)(ANO 34.5%, SPOLU 23.4%, STAN 11.2%)

Babiš's ANO won a commanding 34.5% of the vote and 80 seats — demolishing the pro-Western SPOLU coalition (23.4%). Formed coalition with right-wing fringe parties (SPD, Motorists). Babiš is an oligarch-populist allied with Orbán. The cordon sanitaire approach failed here: unlike Germany's AfD, ANO found willing coalition partners. SPOLU, STAN, and Pirates all refused ANO but were simply outmaneuvered.

Karol Nawrocki — PiS-backed independent(Nawrocki 50.89%, Trzaskowski 49.11%)

First round 18 May 2025, runoff 1 June 2025. PiS-backed independent Karol Nawrocki (IPN director) beat PO/Civic's Warsaw Mayor Rafał Trzaskowski 50.89% to 49.11% (runoff turnout 71.6%). The presidency — the last PiS holdout after Tusk's 2023 parliamentary win — stayed nationalist-right. Nawrocki's veto power now blocks Tusk's liberal-consolidation agenda: judicial reform, EU-alignment, media. The 'EU trajectory holds' bet lost — it swung back.

AD (Luís Montenegro) — Democratic Alliance (AD)(AD 31.8%, Chega 22.6%, PS 23.0%)

Second snap election in a row. AD won again with 31.8% (91 seats) but still no majority. The real story: Chega surged to 22.6% and 60 seats — nearly doubling from 2024. Chega is now the second-largest party, displacing the Socialists. AD still refuses coalition with Chega, forming another minority government. Portugal went from two-party system to three-party in 18 months. The cordon sanitaire holds — for now.

Labor (Anthony Albanese) — Australian Labor Party(Labor ~35% (1st pref), 55.2% (2PP); Coalition ~32% (1st pref))

Landslide Labor victory — 94 seats, the most ever won by a single party in Australian history. 55.2% two-party preferred vote, highest since 1975. But note the FPTP distortion: Labor's first-preference vote was only ~35%, yet they won 62% of seats. Coalition collapsed to historic lows. A counterexample to the global right-wing trend — though notably driven by anti-Trump sentiment and cost-of-living concerns rather than left-wing enthusiasm.

Liberal Party (Mark Carney)(Liberal 43.8%, Conservative 41.3%, NDP 6%)

Stunning Liberal comeback. Carney replaced Trudeau as leader and rode anti-Trump nationalism to 43.8% of the vote — highest Liberal share since 1980. Won 169 seats, 3 short of majority. Conservative leader Poilievre lost his own seat despite Conservatives hitting 41.3% — their best since 1988. NDP collapsed to 6%. The Trump effect: sovereignty concerns overrode domestic economic anger. Key irony: Conservatives got their best vote share in decades and still lost badly.

AfD (systematic growth) — Alternative für Deutschland(20.8% (2025 federal))

AfD now second-largest party nationally. Cordon sanitaire — all other parties refuse coalition at federal level. Growing in every election cycle: 4.7% (2013) → 12.6% (2017) → 10.3% (2021) → 20.8% (2025). State-level wins in Thuringia (32.8%) and Saxony. Firewall holding but under increasing strain.

Fianna Fáil / Fine Gael coalition — Fianna Fáil + Fine Gael(FF 21.9%, FG 20.8%, SF 19.0%)

The establishment held — barely. Fianna Fáil (21.9%) edged out Fine Gael (20.8%) as largest party. Sinn Féin underperformed dramatically despite leading polls for years, winning only 19.0%. The real signal: anti-immigration independents surged, and Ireland has no major far-right party yet — but the populist energy is there, just dispersed. Lowest turnout (59.7%) in over a century. Combined FF+FG vote share continued its decades-long decline to record low, but they still formed government with help from Independents.

Călin Georgescu — Independent (nationalist)(22.9% (R1))

Won Round 1 of presidential election. Constitutional Court annulled the entire election citing 'foreign interference' via TikTok. No Round 2 held.

SPD (Dietmar Woidke)(SPD 30.9%, AfD 29.2%, BSW 13.5%)

SPD narrowly held Brandenburg — Woidke bet his career on outperforming AfD and won. SPD 30.9% vs AfD 29.2%. But the signal is grim for mainstream parties: AfD nearly won the PM's own state despite the SPD incumbency advantage and Woidke's personal popularity. BSW (Wagenknecht) debuted at 13.5%. Greens, Left, FDP all wiped out. The establishment scraped through, but the floor is rising for the insurgents.

FPÖ (Herbert Kickl)(28.8%)

FPÖ won the election with highest vote share. President Van der Bellen refused to give Kickl the mandate to form government, instead tasking second-place ÖVP. Coalition talks eventually collapsed, FPÖ finally got mandate in January 2025.

AfD (Björn Höcke) — Alternative für Deutschland(AfD 32.8%, CDU 23.6%, BSW 15.8%)

Historic: AfD became the first far-right party to win a German state election since WWII, taking 32.8% of the vote — 9.4 points ahead of second-place CDU (23.6%). BSW debuted at 15.8%. But the cordon sanitaire held at state level too: all other parties refused coalition with AfD. CDU formed a minority government with BSW and SPD instead. The winning party was locked out of government.

CDU (Michael Kretschmer)(CDU 31.9%, AfD 30.6%, BSW 11.8%)

CDU barely clung on with 31.9% vs AfD's 30.6% — a margin of just 1.3 points. CDU took 42 seats to AfD's 41. BSW debuted at 11.8%. Like Thuringia, AfD was excluded from government formation via cordon sanitaire. CDU formed coalition with BSW and SPD. The narrowest mainstream hold yet — one more election cycle and the firewall may not hold.

Labour (Keir Starmer) — Labour Party(Labour 33.7%, Con 23.7%, Reform 14.3%, LD 12.2%)

Labour landslide: 411 seats (63% of parliament) on just 33.7% of the vote — the lowest vote share for any governing party since 1830. The most disproportionate result in UK history. Reform UK (Farage) got 14.3% of the vote but only 5 seats — the ultimate FPTP distortion. Reform came 3rd in vote share, ahead of Lib Dems, but Lib Dems got 72 seats on 12.2%. Conservatives collapsed to 23.7% — their worst result ever. The real Ghost Signal: the system translated a lukewarm mandate into an overwhelming majority while suppressing the populist-right insurgency.

RN (Le Pen / Bardella) — Rassemblement National(33.2% (R1 parliamentary))

RN won Round 1 of parliamentary elections. Macron's 'republican front' strategy — tactical withdrawals in Round 2 — prevented RN majority. Le Pen's presidential trend: 33.9% (2017) → 41.5% (2022) → climbing. The firewall is shrinking.

N-VA (Bart De Wever) — New Flemish Alliance (N-VA)(N-VA 16.7%, VB 13.8%, MR 10.3%, PVDA-PTB 9.9%)

N-VA won largest party status with 16.7% nationally (24 seats in 150-seat chamber) — illustrating Belgium's extreme fragmentation. Vlaams Belang (far-right) came 2nd nationally at 13.8% (20 seats) — strong but below pre-election polls that had them overtaking N-VA. 16 parties now in parliament. De Wever formed 5-party 'Arizona' coalition (N-VA, MR, Vooruit, CD&V, Les Engagés) reaching 76+ seats. Vlaams Belang excluded despite being 2nd-largest party. Belgium's baroque system absorbs populism through fragmentation — no single party can dominate.

AD (Luís Montenegro) — Democratic Alliance (AD)(AD 28.8%, PS 28.0%, Chega 18.1%)

AD won narrowly with 28.8% (80 seats) in the closest election in Portuguese history. PS got 28.0% (78 seats). But the earthquake was Chega: surging from 7.2% (2022) to 18.1% — winning 50 seats and becoming Portugal's third force. AD formed a minority government, refusing coalition with Chega. The cordon sanitaire pattern: Chega wins massive vote share but is locked out. Government fell within a year, triggering 2025 snap election where Chega surged further.

PVV (Geert Wilders)(23.5% (37 seats))

PVV won biggest party status with 37 seats. Months of coalition resistance followed. Other parties refused to join coalition. Eventually formed government after 7 months of negotiations — but Wilders had to give up PM role.

PP (Alberto Núñez Feijóo) — Partido Popular(PP 33.1% (137 seats), PSOE 31.7% (121 seats), Vox 12.4% (33 seats))

PP won the most votes (33.1%) and most seats (137) but couldn't form government. The key: Vox (far-right) collapsed from 15.1% to 12.4%, losing 19 seats. PP+Vox fell 6 seats short of majority (170 vs 176 needed). Sánchez (PSOE) survived by cobbling together a coalition with Sumar and Catalan/Basque regional parties — including a controversial amnesty deal with Junts. The counterexample: the far-right declined while other European countries surged. Spain's anti-Franco cultural memory may be a unique brake on the far-right.

New Democracy (Kyriakos Mitsotakis)(ND 40.6% (158 seats), Syriza 17.8%, PASOK 11.8%)

Mitsotakis won a commanding 40.6% — enough for 158 seats (majority) thanks to Greece's 50-seat bonus for the largest party. Syriza collapsed to 17.8%. This was the second election in 5 weeks (first in May was inconclusive under proportional rules; June used the bonus-seat system). A clear mainstream-right victory without needing populist-right allies. Greece's economic recovery narrative worked — rare case of incumbent winning decisively.

Giorgia Meloni — Fratelli d'Italia(26% (coalition 44%))

Clear coalition victory. Meloni became PM within weeks. Actually governing — the exception that proves the rule. Notable: most 'domesticated' of the right-wing winners, quickly aligned with EU/NATO consensus.

Marine Le Pen (R2 challenger) — Rassemblement National(41.5% (R2))

Le Pen reached presidential R2 for the second time. Lost to Macron but with 41.5% — up from 33.9% in 2017. The trajectory is clear.