Concepts & Frameworks

Dalio's framework: great power conflicts progress through economic war (tariffs, sanctions, asset freezes) before turning kinetic. When capital controls fail to coerce compliance, military seizure of physical assets follows. The pattern: trade war → technology war → capital war → kinetic war.

📖 Principles for Dealing with the Changing World Order (2021)

Prof Jiang's analogy comparing US overextension in Iran to Athens' disastrous Sicilian Expedition (415 BC) — a rising empire, at the peak of its power, launching a distant military campaign that overextends its resources and accelerates imperial decline. Athens never recovered from Sicily; the question is whether the US-Iran campaign follows the same arc.

📖 Game Theory lecture series (2026)

Alden's thesis: when government debt-to-GDP exceeds ~100%, the central bank can no longer freely fight inflation because higher rates increase sovereign debt servicing costs faster than they cool the economy. The Fed becomes subordinate to Treasury's funding needs. Result: structurally higher inflation, financial repression, and periodic 'big print' events to prevent debt spirals.

📖 Broken Money (2023), ongoing macro updates

Alden's baseline scenario: the US gradually monetizes its debt through persistent moderate inflation (3-5%) rather than a single dramatic event. Currency debasement happens slowly enough that most people don't notice. War or crisis could escalate this to a 'big print' ($2T+ emergency spending), but the default path is the slow bleed.

📖 MacroVoices appearances, newsletter (2025-2026)

Dixon's framework: the global monetary system is shifting from US dollar unipolar dominance to a multipolar structure where multiple settlement systems compete. Bitcoin and gold serve as neutral settlement layers. The transition accelerates during wars that reveal dollar weaponization (sanctions, SWIFT exclusion, reserve freezes).

📖 Bitcoin Knowledge Podcast, Mentor Sessions

Varoufakis argues capitalism has already ended — replaced by a new system where Big Tech platforms extract 'cloud rent' from users and businesses, similar to feudal lords extracting rent from serfs. Markets have been replaced by digital fiefdoms (Amazon, Google, Apple). Central bank money-printing since 2008 killed capitalism's profit mechanism and created 'cloud capital.'

📖 Technofeudalism: What Killed Capitalism (2023)

Fazi's thesis: EU member states are not sovereign actors but vassals of US hegemony. European military bases serve as US 'launching pads,' EU sanctions on Russia hurt European industry more than Russia, and European sovereignty rhetoric is purely theatrical. The EU's real function is to lock member states into Atlantic alignment regardless of their citizens' interests.

📖 Unherd columns, Substack (2024-2026)

Smith's recurring method: comparing politicians' stated positions to their actual decisions over time to expose credibility gaps. Applied to both parties — tracks promise vs. action on war, spending, civil liberties. When the gap between rhetoric and reality widens, it's a leading indicator of institutional legitimacy erosion.

📖 Part of the Problem podcast, ongoing

Horton's framing: the 2026 US-Iran conflict is not a new war but the latest chapter of 70+ years of US intervention in Iran — from the 1953 CIA coup (Operation Ajax) through the Shah's dictatorship, the hostage crisis blowback, Iran-Iraq War support, decades of sanctions, and now direct military strikes. Each intervention creates the conditions for the next.

📖 Enough Already (2021), J. Burden Show appearance (Mar 2026)

In Larsson's color-coded trend system, yellow (🟡) signals the structural trend is bullish/intact — the macro uptrend hasn't broken despite price volatility. Other phases: grey (⚪) = neutral/no clear trend, blue (🔵) = structural downtrend. A yellow phase holding through a crisis = strong structural demand.

📖 Larsson Line TA reports (weekly)

Benz's framework: the 'censorship-industrial complex' is a Layer 1 hegemony instrument alongside military and monetary power. Governments contract NGOs and tech platforms to manage narratives, suppress dissent, and control information flows. Iran's 30-day internet blackout is the overt version; Western information control is covert but structurally similar. Benz predicts these techniques will be studied and adapted.

📖 Foundation for Freedom Online, Tucker Carlson appearances

Prof Jiang's core methodology: using deep historical parallels — not as metaphors but as structural models — to predict how current geopolitical events will unfold. By mapping present-day power dynamics onto past cycles (Athens/Sicily, British/Suez, Soviet/Afghanistan), he identifies the phase of decline and predicts next moves before they happen. The method's power: history doesn't repeat, but imperial overextension follows remarkably consistent patterns.

📖 Game Theory lecture series (2024-2026)

Benz's core term for the network of government agencies, NGOs, and tech platforms that coordinate narrative management and information suppression. A Layer 1 hegemony instrument alongside military and monetary power. Western information control is covert but structurally similar to overt censorship regimes. The complex manages public perception around wars, elections, and policy — making it invisible is part of how it works.

📖 Foundation for Freedom Online, Tucker Carlson appearances, CPAC 2026

Prof Jiang's Game Theory #16 thesis: Israel is the primary strategic beneficiary of the US-Iran war. While the US bears the costs of military engagement (blood, treasure, diplomatic capital), Israel achieves its long-sought objective of neutralizing its most capable regional adversary. The pattern mirrors historical examples where junior alliance partners profit from senior partners' wars.

📖 Game Theory #16 (March 26, 2026)

Ghost Signal's core analytical lens: reality is layered, not flat. Layer 0: US Hegemony (the root OS — petrodollar, military supremacy, institutional control, narrative management). Layer 1: Hegemony Instruments (dollar/DXY, military force, institutions like UN/IMF/NATO, information control). Layer 2: Effects (oil/energy prices, Fed/rates, fiscal/debt dynamics, wars as enforcement). Layer 3: Symptoms & Signals (crypto, gold, elections, BRICS alternatives). Every news event is positioned in this stack — showing WHY it matters, not just WHAT happened.

📖 Ghost Signal methodology (2026)

Dalio's master framework from "Principles for Dealing with the Changing World Order": empires rise and fall in predictable cycles driven by education, innovation, competitiveness, military strength, reserve currency status, and internal order. The cycle spans roughly 250 years. The US is in the late/declining phase while China rises. Key indicators: wealth gaps, political polarization, reserve currency challenges, and great power conflict.

📖 Principles for Dealing with the Changing World Order (2021)

CTO Larsson's proprietary technical analysis indicator that color-codes market trend phases: 🟡 Yellow = structural uptrend intact, ⚪ Grey = neutral/no clear trend, 🔵 Blue = structural downtrend. The system focuses on higher timeframes and structural trend direction rather than short-term noise. Used across BTC, ETH, SOL, DXY, equities, and commodities.

📖 CTO Larsson TA Reports (weekly), Larsson Line Pro platform

When a strong country uses military force — air power that can be tactically successful (bombs hit targets, bombs kill leaders) — but it does not produce strategic success. The target regime lashes back asymmetrically, domestic pressure builds for ground war, and each stage closes the trap further.

📖 Robert Pape, 'Bombing to Win' (1996) / Escalation Trap Substack