Where We Put Our Money
We don't just make predictions — we bet on them. Real money, public positions, tracked here.
Our daily briefs identify geopolitical patterns. When conviction is high enough, we find a corresponding prediction market.
We place real-money positions on Polymarket. Entry price reflects the market's implied probability — lower entry = higher disagreement with the crowd.
Every position is logged here with our reasoning, entry price, and potential return. If we win, we get $1 per share. If we lose, we lose our cost.
No permanent US-Iran peace deal by June 30. Nuclear control + Hormuz are structural barriers no negotiation can bridge in this timeframe. Every portfolio source aligns on this.
Islamabad talks (Apr 10-12) will NOT produce a permanent peace deal. Both sides will agree to extend the ceasefire or continue negotiating, but no 'conclusive agreement' as Pakistan promised.
Ceasefire will be extended beyond the initial 2-week window (past Apr 21). Neither side wants to restart — Trump needs a deal for Beijing trip (May 14), Iran proved its leverage.
Iran will NOT agree to end uranium enrichment by April 30. Nuclear program is non-negotiable leverage — Iran uses it as insurance, not a bargaining chip.
No US-Iran ceasefire before April 15. Active escalation phase continues — Iran rejected ceasefire, Trump committed to '2-3 more weeks of hard strikes', April 6 deadline dead.
No US-Iran ceasefire before May 31. Structural barriers — Hormuz toll system, no negotiation framework, active military operations — prevent resolution within 8 weeks.
No US-Iran ceasefire before June 30. Even if ceasefire talks begin, normalization of Hormuz traffic and formal agreement within 12 weeks is structurally unlikely.
Iran ceasefire by April 7 — YES. Lottery ticket at 0.9% implied probability.
Fed holds rates unchanged at April meeting. Oil shock = no cut, no reason to hike.